This Stock Market Run Can’t Last Forever… Can It?

A client asked me recently, ‘This stock market run can’t last forever, can it?’

It’s a fair question. 

The past year has been kind to investors: global equities have rallied strongly, inflation fears have cooled, and interest rate cuts are now being whispered about by central banks. 

The wins have felt almost too good, and if you’ve been investing long enough, you’ll know, markets don’t move in straight lines.

So how should we think about it?

The Myth of Permanence

History is very clear, market cycles rise and fall. 

The Dow Jones, one of the world’s oldest indices, has experienced two world wars, multiple recessions, oil crises, financial crashes, pandemics—and still, across more than a century, it has averaged an annual return of just over 7% after inflation.

A study from Dimensional Fund Advisors looked at global market returns from 1926 to 2022. They found that while downturns are inevitable, recoveries are even more certain. 

Markets spend far longer rising than falling—bear markets may feel intense, but bull markets are persistent.

So yes, the current run will end.

But another will follow.

The Psychology of ‘This Time is Different’

Part of the anxiety is psychological. 

When markets climb quickly, investors begin to believe they’re standing on a precipice. Behavioural finance calls this recency bias—the tendency to think the immediate past is a reliable guide to the future—something I’ve written about in a past blog.

But just as it was easy to assume in 2022 that markets would never recover from inflation and rate hikes, it’s equally easy now to think the rally must be unsustainable. 

Neither view is accurate; both are emotional shortcuts.

The Role of Planning

This is why planning beats prediction.

If your strategy depends on calling the top or bottom of markets, you will always be late. 

But if your WealthMap® is built on long-term goals, diversified portfolios, and sensible risk management, you don’t need to know when the music will pause.

You simply need to keep dancing.

A Positive Perspective

The truth is, volatility is the price of admission for long-term growth. 

Markets will rise, fall, and rise again. Your portfolio doesn’t need to “win” every cycle—it only needs to compound steadily over time.

Warren Buffett put it well: ‘The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.’

So yes, this stock market run will end. But so will the next downturn. 

If your plan is aligned to your values and goals, you’ll find yourself less concerned with timing the market and more confident in simply staying the course.

Remember, the point isn’t to predict when it ends—it’s to ensure your story continues, regardless of the cycle.

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